*The North Is Not Happy With This Administration…You Are Giving Tonnes Of People Money In The North They Are Shouting Your Name, They Are Saying ‘Everything Is Well’. Elections Will Shock You. Do not Deceive Yourself’
*’You Cannot Defeat A United Political Force With Divided Opposition, No Matter How Justified Your Complaints May Be’
By Felix Durumbah, Abuja
A titanic battle for Aso Rock in 2027 is shaping up with President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking re-election, and the opposition candidates, principally Peter Obi of Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and Atiku Abubakar of African Democratic Congress (ADC), intent on removing him from office, deploying every available means to attain their objective.
On the sidelines, political commentators familiar with efforts by both camps keep coming up with permutations and configurations predicated on felt pulse of voters, parties’ structural strengths and perceived deficiencies/eaknesses, as well as other indices, to ostensibly predict where the pendulum of victory will swing on 16 January next year.
For instance, today, popular Arise Television presenter, Rufai Oseni, flew a kite when he claimed that Northern Nigeria voters are unhappy with the Tinubu administration.
Disclosing his reasons for taking the position, Oseni warned that the voters’ verdict in the presidential election could surprise the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Tinubu’s party.
But, a human rights lawyer, Barrister Maduabuchi Idam, apparently disagreeing with this position, warned that Tinubu will lose the exalted seat only through a coalition, saying that a fragmented opposition, as obtains presently, cannot muster the necessary nationwide votes to oust the President.
He pointed to 2015 where the coalition of late President Muhammadu Buhari, Tinubu, Rochas Okorocha and others, generated enough national votes to dump then-President Goodluck Jonathan from the top seat.
Idam noted that the same coalition is what Tinubu rode to Aso Rock in 2023.
Speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show while dissecting events in the nation’s political firmament ahead of the election, the respected presenter contended that his conclusion emerged from field sentiment analyses which he conducted as well as other indices.
He said: “The North is not happy with this administration.
“I know a lot of people will come back at me and say that’s a fallacy of hasty generalisation.
“But it’s an opinion gathering. It’s in feeling the pulse of the people in the North. It’s feeling the trajectory of what is happening in the North.
“Clearly, I know you’re going to ask me ‘what’s the empirical data?’. Obviously, when you check a lot of public sentiment analyses, you see that obviously, to a large extent.”
Dismissing the support which some politicians such as State governors are seen to receive from North’s residents as tenable proof of likely votes for Tinubu next year, Oseni reasoned that any such backing based on financial or other inducements may be likened to building a house on quicksand.
“Do not deceive yourself, you see, politicians are the most delusional and the most optimistic people on earth.
“Because you are giving tonnes of people money in the North they are shouting your name, they are saying ‘everything is well’. Elections will shock you. Do not deceive yourself,” he said.
Digging deeper, the presenter referred to governors who decamped from other political parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to APC on account of crises and sharp divisions within their original parties, questioning if any serious commitment to Tinubu’s re-election should be expected from such personalities.
To him, their defection might have nothing to do with genuinely preferring the APC as an option, pointing out that if their parties had not been embroiled in crises, they possibly would not have joined APC.
Oseni described the governors’ present relationship with the federally-ruling party as “a strange marriage”, suggesting that it could have consequences in terms of working for APC and Tinubu ahead of the polls.
Oseni said: “Will the APC be able to trust the complete commitments of the governors that came to the fold of the APC because of the disintegration of the PDP? That’s another factor.
“You see, it’s a strange marriage arrangement. They just had to come to the APC, not because if they had a choice, if their own party was not disintegrated, or had not gone through the metamorphosis, do you think they’re going to come?
“So, are they going to be able to give their full commitment and just sweep everything off like that? It’s going to be interesting.”
However, another perspective was injected into the scenario by Barrister Idam, who insisted that without a political alliance akin to that of 2015 which berthed the Buhari administration, it would be impossible to remove Tinubu in 2027.
Idam went further to predict that a lack of such coalition would even see the APC controlling federal power to beyond 2031.
The lawyer disclosed these in a statement he issued today.
With the benefit of hindsight, Barrister Idam explained that Tinubu forged an alliance with Buhari in the run-up to 2015 with the latter as its figurehead while he (Tinubu) and the coalition were the driving instruments, stressing that the model worked successfully as it swept Jonathan and the PDP out of office.
The lawyer said: “Coalition was the strategy that brought Tinubu to power. There was no magic or extraordinary political calculation behind it.
“It was a coalition that used Buhari as its figurehead, and thereafter, the political platform became convenient for producing Tinubu as President.
“The lesson is simple: without a similar sacrifice and strategic coalition, no one outside the APC may become President of Nigeria, even after 2031.”
On free and fair election and equitable playing field, he claimed that APC had never promised Nigerians such, suggesting to opposition leaders to manoeuvre within available confines to fight for power too.
“The ruling party has never promised Nigerians a free and fair election. It boasts of winning! Whatever anyone makes of its boasts is entirely up to them.
“The truth, however, is that it has never pretended to guarantee a credible electoral process or a level playing field for political participation.
“The opposition parties are the ones ignoring the warning signs. Instead of building a formidable coalition, they are busy rehearsing defeatist commentaries, speaking as though they have already been rigged out before the election even begins.
“The opposition must stop speaking as though defeat is inevitable and start building the political structure necessary to win.
“You cannot defeat a united political force with a divided opposition, no matter how justified your complaints may be,” Idam stated.
*PHOTO CAPTION: L-R: Tinubu, Obi, Atiku… Going for broke.
