2027: Millstone Around Tinubu’s Neck


By Felix Durumbah, Editor

A huge dilemma over who to pick as running mate for the crucial 2027 presidential poll has cropped up for President Bola Tinubu, two years to the election.

The election will determine if he kicks off a second term –should he win –or,like President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, have his presidential career screech to a halt at the poll in a bid to get re-elected.

Though Tinubu has not specifically stated that he will seek re-election, his body language and remarks by his close allies indicate that he will run.

But, a massive roadblock has been erected on his trajectory: Should he stick with the Muslim-Muslim ticket on which he and Vice President (VP) Kashim Shettima coasted to victory in 2023, losing some key Northern States in the process, or recalibrate by picking a prominent Northern Christian, thus garnering votes in Christian-choked states where he lost in 2023?

Though he is known to be a political fox, an artful strategist, this appears to be a catch-22 situation for the President.

This is because diametrically-opposed and fiercely-contesting rival Northern groups are on his neck, literally baying for his political blood, in seeking that he picks either a Muslim or Christian running mate, in their calculations “if he wants to win in 2027.”

Already rumbling in the opposing fight-ready corners are the North-Central All Progressives Congress (APC) Forum, spearheaded by Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, and the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum,led by Dominic Alancha.

While the former warned Tinubu to stick to the Muslim-Muslim ticket, in fact to run again with Shettima, if he wants to return to Aso Rock, the latter warned the President of electoral doom should he,again, neglect the rising Christian populace by not picking one of their own as his VP candidate.

Almost in a dagger’s drawn scenario, both groups seek to drag Tinubu into their separate, obvious ethno-religious agendas.

This bid reflects the deepened cleavages in Northern Nigeria and how the rabid polarity may play a formidable role in defining how the North votes in 2027 –and so, possibly too, which presidential candidate wins or garners most votes there in two years’ time.

In a press statement on Saturday, August 23, the North-Central APC Forum did not mince words in warning Tinubu that he could miss out on 80 percent of Northern Muslim votes, should he heed calls to offload the Muslim-Muslim ticket or even dump Shettima as running mate.

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Chairman of the forum, Zazzaga, was reacting to an earlier call by the Alancha-led group which strongly cautioned Tinubu against, again, fielding a same-religion ticket for 2027, noting that it made him lose several key Middle Belt (North-Central) States in 2023.

Furthermore, the group pointed out, the President will lose even more Middle Belt states in 2027, if he goes ahead with such ticket.

People&Politics recalls that in the 2023 presidential election in Nasarawa State -a Middle Belt state –the then-unfancied Peter Obi, the presidential flagbearer of Labour Party (LP), polled 191,361 votes to defeat Tinubu, the federally-ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, who got 172,922 votes.

Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), popularly called Atiku, came third in the state with 147,093 votes.

Rewind too to Plateau State, the LP candidate scored 466,272 votes, Tinubu garnered 307,195 votes, and Atiku, 243,808.

Cross the Nasarawa boundary and go to Benue State, Obi secured 308,372 votes; Tinubu, 310,468 (narrowly emerged top there); Atiku: 130,081; and Engr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP): 4,740.

In the nation’s seat of power, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), where Tinubu presently lives, the results at the time showed that Obi got 281,717; Tinubu: 90,902; Atiku 74,194; and Kwankwaso: 4,517.

Appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today, and obviously armed with these vital statistics, the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum told Tinubu to expect worse, should he wear the Muslim-Muslim toga once more.

But, firing back, in a statement signed by Zazzaga, the North-Central APC Forum urged the President not to listen or bow to the wishes of any group asking him to drop the same-religion political kaftan.

Zazzaga, who was a member of the APC 2023 Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), pooh-poohed the move against the ticket, explaining that it was a mere political strategy to win elections and not an attempt to marginalize Christians or other religious groups.

Picking holes in the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum’s claim that Tinubu should forget Christian votes in the Middle Belt in 2027 if he gallops on with the same-religion ticket, the APC Forum dismissed it as blowing hot air, and pointed to the presence of influential Christians in Tinubu’s government.

According to the Forum, Tinubu cannot lose Christian votes with the presence of titans such as Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, APC National Chairman, Plateau State-born Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, and others.

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Defending the President’s chances as huge with the Muslim-Muslim ticket, the APC Forum stated: “The Muslim-Muslim ticket will not affect President Bola Tinubu’s chances in the Middle Belt, which is part of the North-Central and this is because of the key positions held by Middle Belt Christians in the APC government.

“We can guarantee that Tinubu will get 90 percent of the votes from the North-Central.”

To them, the President’s feats in office will also speak well for him among the electorate, insisting that, therefore, it was unnecessary to take the “needless risk of changing a winning team.”

The Forum posited that persons and groups pressuring Tinubu to jettison the Muslim-Muslim ticket did not vote for him in 2023, declaring that they would still not vote for the President in 2027, irrespective of his dropping Shettima.

The statement read,in part: “Those that are calling on President Bola Tinubu to change Vice President Kashim Shettima, basing their agitation on the Muslim-Muslim ticket, if you check, you will notice that in 2023, most of their communities voted for Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

“Now if Peter Obi is to come out again in 2027, as expected, what is the guarantee that they will vote for Tinubu even if he is to drop Shettima and replace him with a Christian? Does it mean that these people will now leave Peter Obi and vote for Tinubu?”

The Forum alleged that those who want Tinubu to replace Shettima with a Christian want the President to fail in 2027.

The statement added: “The truth is most of these people are not Tinubu’s supporters, they don’t really want him to win re-election in 2027. That is why some of them are going as far as urging Mr President to drop those that went to great lengths to work for his victory in 2023.

“They are only trying to deceive Mr President but we believe the President knows better and will be able to see through their mischief. They don’t mean well for Mr President and the party.”

Pointing accusing fingers at unidentified persons they said are within Tinubu’s inner circle, the Forum alleged that they were going round marginalizing and alienating Muslims in some states in the North while boosting the financial and material fortunes of Christians in those states,all because of 2027.

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It stated: “Another issue that we want to bring to Mr President’s attention is there are people close to him – we will not mention their names but they know themselves. They are going about in different communities in the North, giving money to some communities while excluding others all in the name of asking Northern Christian communities to vote for Tinubu.

“But while they are doing that they are alienating and marginalizing Northern Muslim communities. This is counter-productive and it will backfire eventually and we don’t want Mr President to suffer because of the poor decisions of these people who are close to him.

“Now these people who are concentrating on Northern Christians should consider this – what if the 2023 scenario repeats itself in 2027 with Peter Obi also contesting and President Tinubu now loses both Christian and Muslim votes?

“What if the Christian communities again vote for Obi and the Muslim communities who are now being neglected also refuse to vote for Tinubu?

“These are the issues that these people who are calling on Mr President to drop Shettima are either not thinking about, or are ignoring because they are up to mischief and do not mean well for the President and the APC.

“Our sincere advice for Mr President is that he should maintain the status quo that produced him. We are not in support of calls for President Tinubu to change the Vice President.

“Changing Kashim Shettima will not bear any positive fruit in the election because, looking at the results of the 2023 election, all the Christian-dominated areas in the North voted for Peter Obi and we don’t expect a different outcome in 2027.

“Rather, President Tinubu risks losing a large chunk of Northern Muslim votes if he listens to these calls and goes ahead to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima.

“We advise Mr President not to gamble with the 2027 election. President Tinubu will lose 80 percent of Northern Muslim votes if he decides to change Shettima.

“Even if he decides to replace him with another Northern Muslim, he will lose Northern Muslim votes, so the best approach is to maintain the status quo and go with what worked for him in the last election.”


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