Looming US-Iran Conflict: Nigeria The Winner, Rubs Hands As Unexpected Windfall Beckons

*Oil Prices Tipped To Hit $120bp, Almost Twice Current Rate

Should President Donald Trump order the much-expected military strikes on Iran soon, Nigeria’s vaults may bulge with petro-dollars thereafter.

US and Iranian negotiators are presently locked in talks over the global superpower’s insistence that Iran cannot own a nuclear weapon, saying the Middle East nation would deploy such weapon of mass destruction to terrorize other nations in the region, given her antecedents -a charge the Islamic Republic flatly denies, contending its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.

However, Trump seems dissatisfied with Iran’s stance at the talks and yesterday warned the Ayatollah Khameini-led country that “bad things” will happen to her if, within 10 days, the nation failed to come over to the US perspective on the matter.

Ahead of the talks, Trump ordered the massing of hundreds of fighter jets, two aircraft carriers, numerous drones and other hi-tech military hardware close to Iran, awaiting orders to strike.

It has been described as the largest US military buildup since that which ousted Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in the early 1990s.

On the heels of these developments, crude oil has climbed more than $4 per barrel (pb) this week after the Iranian naval forces held two different drills in reaction to the military buildup, reports Iran-based Mehr News Agency today.

In the international oil market, as of today, Brent crude oil prices are hovering around $71.00–$72.00 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading between $65.00 and $67.00 per barrel.

Experts said the slight rally in the prices is driven by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Nigeria’s $41.5billion 2026 budget is anchored on a crude oil benchmark price of US$64.85 per barrel.

The benchmark, part of the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC), is paired with a daily production target of 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd) and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the US Dollar.

Any breakout of war between Iran and the US will further impact global oil prices as 20% of the 100 million barrels used worldwide each day passes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz that borders Iran.

Aware of this strategic advantage, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy even blocked the strategic waterway for few hours during the drill on Wednesday, setting off alarm bells.

Analysts predict that any military conflict will not be brief, but will last long, potentially sending oil prices as high as $120 bpd -a massive boom, and breather, to Nigeria which has depended, to a large extent, on external borrowing, especially since 2023, to fund many of her projects and even certain aspects of federal recurrent expenditure.
*PHOTO CAPTION: Trump (left) and Khameini.