By David Segar, author with The Opta Analyst
Chelsea vs PSG Stats: The Key Insights:
*The Opta supercomputer is backing Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) to win the Club World Cup final, giving them a 64.4% chance of doing so.
*This will be the first major international final in men’s football between clubs from England and France.
*PSG have won their last five knockout matches in all competitions by a combined score of 18-0.
It’s almost time for the FIFA Club World Cup final, the first ever to be contested by two teams from the same continent.
Tomorrow, Sunday, July 13, is D-Day and kick off is 8pm Nigeria time.
Chelsea take on PSG at MetLife Stadium,New Jersey, United States (U.S) in what will be the first major international final contested between teams from England and France.
Not many will have backed Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea to get this far given the strength of the field at the start, but thanks to some strong performances, a kind draw and being able to add a £60 million striker part-way through the tournament, they are now within one game of glory.
Standing in their way are the European champions, and the newly crowned best team in the world, at least according to the latest Opta Power Rankings.
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Luis Enrique’s PSG have carried on the stellar form that saw them win a treble (Ligue 1, Coupe de France and Champions League) into the Club World Cup, though they did suffer a shock 1-0 loss to Botafogo in the group stage.
They have otherwise beaten Atlético Madrid, Seattle Sounders, Inter Miami, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to reach the final, with an aggregate score of 16-0.
In fact, dating back to the Coupe de France final, PSG have won their last five knockout matches in all competitions by an aggregate score of 18-0, including outscoring opponents 10-0 across their past three games at the 2025 Club World Cup.
They reached the final with a stunning dismantling of Real Madrid, winning 4-0 at MetLife Stadium, having raced into a three-goal lead inside 24 minutes.
Chelsea also had a hiccup against Brazilian opponents in the group stage, losing 3-1 to Flamengo, but they have otherwise beaten LAFC, ES Tunis, Benfica, Palmeiras and Fluminense en route to the final.
The last time these two teams met was in the last 16 of the 2015-16 UEFA Champions League, which saw PSG advance 4-2 on aggregate.
Chelsea will look to lean on their excellent recent record in international finals, having won their last five (excluding UEFA Super Cups) dating back to 2013. That includes their 4-1 win over Real Betis in May’s UEFA Conference League Final.
Their last international final defeat came in their first FIFA Club World Cup appearance, a 1-0 loss to Corinthians in 2012.
Tomorrow’s first half could be pivotal considering how quickly PSG have started some of their games, especially against Real Madrid.
They have scored 10 first-half goals in this year’s Club World Cup, only Bayern (11) have more, while their 5.85 expected goals (xG) generated before half-time is bettered by just Manchester City (6.18).
However, they will come up against a Chelsea side who have not conceded a first-half goal in this year’s tournament.
In fact, they have allowed opponents just 0.85 xG during the first half, lower than any other team despite playing more matches than all but three others.
Variety has been the spice of life for the Blues. Their last 10 goals at the Club World Cup (excluding own goals) have been scored by nine different players, with new arrival João Pedro the only one to score more than once in that time, hitting both on his debut in the 2-0 semi-final win over Fluminense.
Pedro hit the ground running for his new club and has scored seven goals in his last nine starts in all competitions for Brighton and Chelsea.
If he starts and scores another two tomorrow, he will become the first player to score two or more goals in each of his first two starts for a Premier League club since fellow Brazilian Gabriel Martinelli for Arsenal in 2019.
Cole Palmer will also be one PSG have to watch out for. Only two players have created more chances from open play at this Club World Cup than him (nine); in the semi-final against Fluminense, the England international laid on three opportunities and completed all 27 of his passes, becoming only the second player at this year’s tournament to create 3+ chances and maintain a 100% passing accuracy (20+ passes attempted) after Rayan Aït-Nouri for Man City in their win over Juventus.
PSG, of course, have plenty of dangermen themselves, with none more productive than Ousmane Dembélé. His goal and assist in the thrashing of Real Madrid in his first start of the tournament took him to 36 goal involvements in 2025 (27 goals, 9 assists), at least five more than any other player from Europe’s top five leagues since the turn of the year.
Bradley Barcola will hope he can convince Luis Enrique to start him. Despite only starting 26 of PSG’s 41 games in 2025, Barcola has 18 assists to his name this calendar year, four more than any other player for a side in Europe’s top five leagues. He is averaging an assist every 129 minutes in 2025.
It has very much been a team effort from the Parisians, and Vitinha has been a standout performer in midfield. The Portuguese star has completed at least 100 passes in five matches at this year’s Club World Cup; the only other player to complete 100 passes in more than one match is Chelsea’s Tosin Adarabioyo (2).
PSG are the favourites to win the final, according to the Opta supercomputer. The French giants beat Chelsea in 64.4% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations, and do so inside 90 minutes in 42.2%.
The Premier League side are successful in 35.6% of simulations, and win in normal time in 31.4%.
The game has a 26.4% chance of going to extra-time and potentially penalties.
